Ever Since Bihar poll verdict is out, speculations waft about its ramifications on the National Political scenario and future of the Mahagathbandhan – the Grand alliance (GA).some drive satisfaction that problems will crop up soon or later in the GA as RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) ,having more seats than Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s party Janata Dal (U) will not compromise with smaller piece of cake in the Government and its day to day running but some envision that The GA striking power will be amazing with every passing day.
Right from the mega oath ceremony on Nov 20,things will start moving. The winners have scripted the guest lists in a politically calculated move . the function will show case leaders of national level GA in the next Lok Sabha polls,and its formats for the fast approaching state Assembly polls in ten states in next two years.Gravity of the GA, after hitting bull’s eye in the crucial state of Bihar,can be gauged from the swirling ambitions of such tie-ups in the states of Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu,West Bengal and UT Puducherry next year and 2017 polls in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
Much to the bewilderment of politicians ,too, possibilities for a truck between friends turned foes like Bahujan Samaj party and Samajwadi party,are being debated though on the ground such a joint venture between the two is not feasible.If Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance would have fared well, such a combine might have come into being with lurking fears of their decimation without joining hands .Both SP-BSP would have stooped to conquer,but the scenario has undergone dramatic change . Surprisingly ,BSP has put paid such speculations and SP is also refusing to make any comment.
In the approaching Assembly polls in Kerala,TN and West Bengal, the saffron brigade's prospects do not appear bright in the wake of different political culture in these swathes. In Assam, BJP might do better but the way ,Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is planning for a grand alliance with local outfits with a breather from The Nitish –Lalu Duo and concentration of minorities there, it would be tough for BJP to crack Assam’s hard political betel nuts. In Kerala,despite resurgence of BJP in civic polls ,the LDF (left democratic Alliance ),the main winner in municipal polls,stand ahead of others including ruling Congress. GA deals here too are in air.
In West Bengal,which saw Trinamool Congress performance and left parties dismal show in Bihar polls as well in WB municipal elections,Ms. Mamata Bannerjee , an old Congress hand, and currently in loop of Bihar’s GA,which has Congress too, stands taller than others on polls arithmetic .Tamil Nadu’s Jayalalithaa and her arch rival DMK are face to face ,and Congress’s truck, with any of the two can not be ruled out, But winners there will be crucial for LS polls..
On ground,AIADMK appears gaining ground ever since release of Jayalalithaa from Jail where she was lodged on alleged corruption charges,but she came out with flying colours. Imagine tempo of BJP’s opponents after these polls which will be completed just ahead of UP and Punjab polls. Stakes are high,and upbeat opposition feel that they are on the march but secretive Indian voters keep everything close to their hearts. Bihar polls are the best indicator where pollsters were off the mark and women’s turn out remained a mystery with raging debates that they opted for Modi-vis-a - vis Nitish Kumar. Resultes are known to every one.
In Punjab, ambitions of Aam Admi party are soaring high and emergence of GA of Congress-AAP can not be ruled out to take on the incumbent Akali Dal-BJP combine .Every day,discussions are underway with Congress firing all cylinders to revamp the party there while AAP,after facing internal bickering ,is coming to terms with the situation to set its house in order.
Fired by Bihar verdict,Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is beaming with energy and his bonhomie with Nitish Kumar is no more secret. Advocating strong federal structure, he is taking on the center on a slew of issues though he is head of the quasi – state.
In nondescript Naglamathia near safai in Eatwah ,people on Nov 14, marked”Gai -Teej ( festival in reverence of Cow ) ,but Mulayam Singh ‘s brother Shiva Pal Singh,according to talks on the national highway dhabas after the function,reportedly minced no words to admit that it was a blunder that they ( SP) opted out from GA in Bihar.Had we been there,we would have won a number of MLA seats and Mulayam’s emergence at the national level would have been a strong signal for next LS polls.( efforts to up check his statement is not possible ),but common refrain on Dhabas was the same –regerts from not being the part of the GA.
Now, Safai , Mulayam’s home town, is being decked up to mark “Netaji” birth anniversary on November 22 when he turns 78 ,after the event he will gear up his party set up for polls and by that time,Patna showcasing of Opposition would have been over and his presence and absence will be conspicuous. In politics, Opponents can not be taken lightly and BJP, too, is busy pulling its socks to retain its hold ,and coming months ,a lot of political developments in the BJP will unfold.
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