Come November 8 ! Cat
will be out of bag.Bihar bull will storm China shop to send seismic waves
in Delhi Power corridors in more ways than one. Polls for the 243 member state
Assembly are being billed as an acid test for both the Ruling NDA and Opposition
in the World’s most populous democracy –known for its frenzied elections .
The UP
local bodies polls where the BJP did not fair well does not augur well
for the party which had pocketed 70 plus seats out of 80 seats there. It indicates
that Days of the Modi magic are tapering out and the party will be desperate
now to arrest the trend in the wake of
looming Assembly polls in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal in 2016 , and UP polls in 2017.
Voting for the 186 seats out of 243 in Bihar
is already over and speculations are rife over results. The last polling will
be on Nov 5 for the left over seats.
Many say it will be a
cliff-hanger ,but others do not rule out the possibility of a Delhi assembly
repeat of a lop sided show.
More than discussions on Diwali
preparations and purchase lists,people are watching with bated breath the Bihar
verdict.
If the NDA led by
Narendra Modi scrapes through,the BJP will script a history ,rubbishing nation
wide criticism of growing incidents of intolerance, but if it loses to The
Grand Alliance (GA) of Nitish Kumar-Lalu with Congress being a marginal player,it
will turn out to be a watershed polls for otherwise highly marginalized
opposition ever since 2014 general elections when the Modi wave had upturned
apple carts of all.
If the results go the NDA way, it will be a
major morale booster for the Modi government as stakes are high,but if it
loses,it will effect the central government in many ways and opposition will
leave no stone upturned to repeat show in coming assembly polls and further checkmate
the government’s plans on many key policies.
A journalist commented it will be like “ Kanak Kanak ,Se Sau Guni ,Madhakta
Adhikay, Waa Paye Baurae Jag,Yaa khaye Baurae ( Kanak in Hindi language means –gold,
if Some one gets gold, he loses mental balance and other Kanak means a poisonous fruit
“Dhatura” if some one eats that, he loses mental balance.
At a high profile wedding reception of
Congress leader Abishek Singhvi’s son at 5, Ashoka Road on the penultimate
round of Polling on Nov 1,almost all groups were busy discussing poll verdict’s
possibilities while sipping soft drinks and relishing dinner.
Like yester years when people used to quote
BBC for all sorts of news,many were parroting so called inside information of
intelligence agencies that the NDA would not cross 100 seats ,many said it
would be between 70-85 seats only.
The poll spectre is now
looming in Satta Bazar and many say On the Diwali day,markets will crash
or boom,every one is keeping fingers crossed.
JD (U) leader KC Tyagi
exhuded confidence that they would get 170 plus while Lalu Prasad has said “Abhi
bhi Aagar –Magar mein pade ho, Sweep kar
diya hai” ( You are still confused and caught ifs and buts we have swept polls).
Notwithstanding their claims ,BJP leaders say
that they would get two third majority even if they draw blank in last phase.
The Justice Markandey Katju, ex-Judge,
Supreme Court
In his analysis has
written last week that the Bihar elections are almost certainly going to be
Modi's Waterloo, after which his fortunes are going to rapidly decline. He explains
In most of India, including Bihar, most people vote in elections on caste and
religious lines. The exception is when there is a wave, which cuts through
these lines.
According to him, The
BJP had won the May, 2014 Lok Sabha elections on a Modi wave. This wave was due
to three main reasons :Modi's magic slogan of 'vikas' (development ) which was
perceived as creation of millions of jobs. The Indian youth, whose voting age
was reduced from 21 to 18 in 1988, and who are facing the dreadful future of
unemployment ( 10 million youth enter into the job market in India every year,
but only half a million jobs are created in the organized sector of the economy
), voted en masse for Modi, cutting through caste and religious lines, in the
belief that now they will all get jobs.
Secondly,In India
unfortunately, the communal virus is still deeply entrenched in society. Most
Hindus are communal, and so are most Muslims. Modi was perceived as a ' Muslim
basher ', who had put Muslims in their place in Gujrat in 2002. Many Hindus
believe that there has been too much ' Muslim appeasement ', and so voted for
Modi to put Muslims in their place on an all India basis.
Thirdly,according
to him,People were simply disgusted with Congress and the UPA under whose rule
scam followed scam regularly.Now the Modi wave has largely dissipated, except
among the hardcore, mainly upper caste Hindu fundamentalists.
There are no jobs
despite the victory of the BJP. Jobs cannot be created by slogans. They are
created when the economy is rapidly expanding, but the Indian economy is
practically stagnant. So the youth who were expecting jobs have realized they
were befooled and taken for a ride..
The hope that
foreign investments will come into India and create jobs has proved to be
illusory. In fact Jim Rogers, a leading American investor has withdrawn his
investments in India, as widely reported, saying that one cannot invest in mere
hope. Who will invest or set up factories in India in most parts of whichthere
is lack of infrastructure, massive corruption and corruption ( despite Modi's
tall claim ' Na khaoonga na kanendoonga ' ).
He said on the other
hand, prices of essential foodstuffs like dal and onions have gone through the
roof. This means that the real incomes of most people in India have gone down
drastically.
No doubt the communal
card is still sought to be played as in incidents in Dadri, etc and the beef
ban politics,, but it is not having much effect. Food and jobs are more
important to people than religion or talk of Digital India and visits to
foreign countries.
So voting in the Bihar
elections is following the traditional pattern of caste and religion, and we
can therefore forecast the results with almost mathematical precision.
He quoted figures and
said…….
“Here are the caste
demographics of Bihar which I got from the net :
Population (%)
OBC/EBC 51% ( Yadavs -14%, Kurmis-
4%,[24][25]( EBCs - 30%[26][27][28][29][30] -includes
kushwahas - 6% Koeris -8%,[31]
Teli-3.2%))
Mahadalits* + Dalits(SCs) 16%[32][33]
Muslims 16.9%[10]
Forward caste 15% [34](Bhumihar -3%,
Brahmin-5%,[35] Rajputs- 6%, Kayasth- 1%)
Adivasis(STs) 1.3% [36][37]
Others 0.4% (include
Christians,Sikhs,Jains)
As per, 2011 Census of India ,
Scheduled Castes constitute 16% of Bihar's 104 million population.[38] The
census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits.[39] Mahadalit
community consists of the following sub castes - Bantar, Bauri, Bhogta, Bhuiya,
Chaupal, Dabgar, Dom (Dhangad), Ghasi, Halalkhor, Hari (Mehtar, Bhangi),
Kanjar, Kurariar, Lalbegi, Musahar, Nat, Pan (Swasi), Rajwar, Turi, Dhobi,
Pasi, Chamar and Paswan (Dusadh).[40] Paswan caste was initially left out of
the Mahadalit category.[41][42] Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) constitute around
1.3% of Bihar population.[43][44] Tribals include Gond, Santhal and Tharu
communities in Bihar.[45][46]
Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) are
also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class(MBCs). There are 130-odd EBC
castes in Bihar.
Yadavs and Kurmis constituting 19%
and Muslims about 17% will solidly vote for the Lalu-Nitish alliance, which
makes it 36%. Muslims will vote for it ( despite Owaisi, who is regarded as a
BJP vote splitter by Muslims, and who will therefore not be misled by him )
because Muslims are feeling very insecure after love jihad, ghar wapasi,
speeches of Adityanath, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti ( calling them haramzadas) and
incidents like in Muzaffarnagar, Ballabhgarh, and the latest one at Dadri. So
they will solidly vote for the Nitish Lalu alliance.
A section of the other backward
castes, say 8-10%, will also vote for the alliance, as Lalu has successfully
described it as a fight between the backwards and the forward castes.
Thus the tally of the Nitish-Lalu
alliance comes to about 45% votes, which represents a sweep ( BJP got a
majority in the Lok Sabha with only 31% votes )
As regards, the NDA, its support is
from the upper castes, and a section of EBCs( also called MBCs ) and a section
of dalits, because of Paswan, Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha.
The upper castes in Bihar, as can be
seen from the above chart, are altogether only 15%. Paswan does not have the
support of all the dalits ( who are divided into a large number of sub castes)
in Bihar, unlike Mayawati who has the support of almost all the dalits in U.P.
So he may get the NDA about 6-7% votes. Manjhi may get 7-8% MBC votes, and
Kushwaha may get 3%votes.
Thus the total tally of NDA votes is
15+7+8+3=33%
These figures show that there is
clearly going to be a sweep in favour of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. In the
Indian system of democracy, seats in elections depend not on percentage share
of votes but on being first past the post. With 31% votes the BJP got an
absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. Getting 45% votes means a massive
victory.”
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