UP poll kaleidoscope-Astride bike “Aaj Ka- Abhimanyu”Akhilesh wins Congress Hand; Elephant maintains majestic gait; BJP’s Lotus pin hopes on Modi charisma

By  Neeraj Bajpai

“I had been to other countries-in Europe,Asia and the  Middle East - but none of them had provided even half as much variety, or so much to see and experience and remember, as this one state in northern India. You can travel from one end of Australia to the other,but everywhere on that vast continent you will find that people dress in the same way, eat the same kind of food, listen to the same music. This colourless uniformity is apparent in many other countries of the world, both East and West. But Uttar Pradesh is a world in itself.” - Ruskin Bond.

The dance of democracy in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh has assumed gigantic proportions with most of the stake holders have adopted a fierce tone in the campaign .Knives remained out in open.Now polling is almost all over and only two phases are left.
     
No-holds barred electioneering has touched a crescendo with acidic and sarcastic slogans. More than duels at public places, social media is splattered with taunts, lampooning and mockery of promises.

   (   Cartoon By Neeraj Bajpai)

In the most populous state, the elections for the 403 seats in the assembly is being billed as a mid-term referendum of the Narendra Modi  Government at the Centre as it had gifted the BJP with 73 out of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats. BJP is confident of emerging winner, but so is Mayawati and the SP-Congress alliance. Many visualize fractured mandate ,but satta Bazar is full of reports that the Modi Charisma has worked .   

The state is spread over 75 districts which have 689 cities and towns, 820 blocks and 12 Nagar Nigams. It has 80 LS, 30 Rajya Sabha and 100 legislative council seats.
Stakes run high in the state. It may make or mar national parties’ calculations for the Rajya Sabha strength which is desirable to push or block key legislative business of the Central government.

The run-up to the poll race was full of drama and theatrics which was staged or erupted naturally in none other than the ruling first family of  the state-Samajwadi clan. Septuagenarian father Mulayam Singh Yadav-led team locked horns  with state Chief Minister and SP leader Akhilesh Yadav.

Akhilesh emerged unscathed when on January 16, 2017, the Election Commission of India (ECI) arbitrated in his  favour and chose not to freeze the SP's bicycle symbol.The EC allotted it to the state’s Chief Minister, asserting there was no doubt that  overwhelming  of party men are with the latter .

Legal wranglings apart, there is a perception that  Akhilesh has emerged as “Aaj ka-Abhimanyu,'' son of Arjuna and Subhadra of the epic Mahabharata tussle. As in the epic, he was killed by none other than but by his own blood relations in Chakravyuha at the battle ground.Akhilesh has survived in the fierce tussle. (Legend has it seeing close relatives Abhimanyu had fought alone and final deadly blow had come from Dushashan’s son Jairath). Aaj Ka Abhimanyu ( Akhilesh) is father of Arjuna, one of his sons has same name.

  ( Cartoon- By Neeraj Bajpai )

In the 2012 assembly elections-SP had garnered 229 seats with 29.1 per cent of votes while its main rival Mayawati–Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had  finished second with 80 seats and vote percentage of 25.9 per cent.

The BJP had got 41 seats with 15 per cent votes. Congress had got 28 seats with 11.6 per cent of votes and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal had bagged nine with 2.3 per cent of votes.  Others had got 16 seats  with 12 per cent of votes.

Informatively, as per 2011 census, Dalits constitute about 21  per cent of the state’s population and OBCs about 50 pc population with Yadav-8.50 and Kurmis 3 per cent,
As per 2011 census, Dalits constitute 21.1% of the population of the state.Mallah community is divided in 27 sub-castes. OBCs constitute 40% of UP population. There are 200-odd non-Yadav OBCs. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are divided into 68 castes and sub-castes, 35 of them are OBCs. Forward castes constitute around 22% of the population, in which Muslims in the western region were highly cut up with Jats ever since Hindu-Muslim  riots.

Muslims, a close knit community were highly agitated over the Muzzafarnagar riots .There are 84 constituencies in the western UP . Dalits are between 18 to 27 per cent and at some places Muslims’  concentration varies from six per cent to 40 per cent and 8 to 10  per cent are Brahmins. Nearly 30 per cent are OBCS and Yadavs and Jats are dominant castes.

Other thing which is emerging as saleable in the beginning that Rahul-Akhilesh 

combine is that they are young faces and BJP has yet to project one.But by last phases,everything had changed and polarization was palpable in various regions.  

A day after Congress and SP clinched the deal for Assembly polls in the Hindi heartland state, Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s son-in-law Robert Vadra  said the alliance was the not only an alliance between two parties, but it is a pact between two young and dynamic leaders Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh .

Robert Vadra, husband of Priyanka Gandhi, who  is reported to have played a crucial role to stitch the tie-up  exuded confidence that under their  dynamic leadership, the state would shine and become extremely progressive. Both youth icons will bring forth immense  energy , brilliant ideas, and implementation to transform UP into a world class state.

In the state, which has about 20 crore people, no one takes firebrand Mayawati’s game plans lightly as she can turn tables in any poll. Her poll track records vindicate the fact.
Much before her rivals could churn out their lists, the former state Chief Minister, known for her firm hand on the bureaucracy-especially on the law and order machinery- declared her nominees. 

Her well crafted lists, based in the ground politics of castes and communities contained 99 Muslim candidates. Mayawati's calculations, many  in the poll ring, say veered around that fact these Muslim candidates were fielded in those constituencies where their community population hovered around one lakh and  about 30 per cent population of Dalits . Mukhtar Anasri’s outfit –Quami Ekta Dal – has merged into BSP and Ms. Maywati gave tickets to him and his brother.

The combine, if cemented firmly, can give a winning edge to the BSP’s candidates in these segments. BSP bank on Muslim votes, but there is a hush-hush campaign that she might cobble a post-poll pact with the saffron party in the case of fractured mandate. Many argue that BJP will not afford to lose UP  where  it had won more than 73  out of 80 seats  in 2014 Lok Sabha polls and may prefer to play second fiddle to BSP to keep SP-Congress combine at bay. 

Ms Mayawati  has made her position clear that there was no scope of any truck with BJP in wake of her past experience with it. BSP, with a shrunken vote  bank, can  not afford  to lose minority votes as the general elections are due within two years.

Any hotch-potch arrangement may inflict major damage to Ms Mayawati’s outfit as Congress, now engaged in subtle but pragmatic politics, may win back its traditional vote bank of Muslims-Dalits- Brahmins in coming polls because of its pan- India presence and BJP’s apparently tapering hold.

Tongues wag that BSP and Congress may join  hands in the post poll scenario in case of a hung house on the plank of keeping BJP at bay in any scenario.
Narendra  Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah are keeping a close watch on these developments to re frame the party’s strategies to take on the fresh challenges.

The party followers envision some development which might trigger a wave in the BJP’s favour.

The state has over 14 crore voters out of 19.98 crore  population and youth is a big chunk. Almost half of 140 million voters  are  below 35 years. Out of them, nearly 25 lakhs are new voters (18-19 years) and another 38  million fall under the age group of 20-29 years. So their votes may be crucial for any winning dispensation as their thought process is apparently delinked to seniors .

Youth priority includes employment, digital transformation, development and education.The state as per 2011 census has 19,95,81,477 people with males – 10,45,96,415 and females 94,985,062 (provisional figures). 

The SP government in the last week of December 2016 passed a resolution to transfer 17 sub-castes in Other Backward Castes (OBCs) into Scheduled Castes (SC) category, apparently to increase its vote bank in the upcoming assembly polls but the Allahabad High court asked the government not to go ahead with the move. 

The  transfer of the sub-castes was one of the main commitments of the SP government in 2012 when it had come  to power. SP government had to move another resolution to send this proposal to the Centre for further consideration as the final power for the change is vested by the Union Government provided it does not turn out to be unconstitutional and void.
     
The 17 sub-castes which the government wants to be included in the SC category iThe 17 sub-castes which the government wants to be included in the SC category include Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gaur, Tura, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar and Machua.

In 2005, the SP government had amended the UP Public Services Act, 1994, to include as many as 17 castes in the OBCs to the SC category. But it was quashed in courts .
This move also underlines the SP's strategy to consolidate the votes that drifted away following an overwhelming dominance of  Yadavs over a period of time. The sub-castes proposed to be included in the SC category essentially constitute the most backward castes (MBCs) within the OBCs.

The state, which is totally in poll-colours various distinct regions and each belt has different combination of castes. Like in Rohailkand, there are 52 assembly seats and Dalits make up 14-23 per cent and Muslims 39 to 42 per cent  and 30 per cent are backward classes. Brahmins are present in a few areas. It has districts including Bijnor, Moradabad, Badaun and Bareilly.

There are 19 seats in the Bundelkhand region, and it has Dalit population of about 27 and  32 per cent in different segments. Brahmins make up 8-14 per cent and about  8 per cent are Muslims.Among OBCs,  Kurmis,Nishad and Yadav are in good numbers in some  constituencies.Jalaun, Jhansi, Mahoba, Banda andChitrakoot are prominent places of the region.
In central UP, there are 98 seats and the region has 19-25 per cent Dalit population  and Brahmins  figure around 8 to 12 per cent and Muslims 9-28 per cent.
There are 150 assembly seats in eastern UP and Dalits are around 19 per cent, Brahmins 6-14 per cent  and Muslims 8-27 per cent .Kurmis, Rajbhars, Bhumihars and Yadvas are also present in big numbers.
Amid electoral hullabaloo, in what was seen as a repeat act from the RSS in the run up to the 2015 Bihar polls, senior Sangh fountainhead functionary Manmohan Vaidya sparked off a major row when he stated that reservation of Dalits and OBCs have actually kept them in alienation for long.
''In the name of reservation over the years, some people have been kept alienated," Mr Vaidya said at the Jaipur Literature Festival sparking off a major row with two key players in UP both the BSP and the Samajwadi Party leaders attacking the RSS and the Centre on the issue.
Many opposition parties slammed the RSS leader for the remark and he, too, clarified the position but the statement kicked off a controversy.
In the cacophony of poll bugles, nothing can be predicted with certainty but a bonfire of many players aspirations and winners will mark Holi with riot of colours  and dash of crackers on March 11—Saturday. In 2005, the SP government had amended the UP Public Services Act, 1994, to include as many as 17 castes in the OBCs to the SC category. But it was quashed in courts .

This move also underlines the SP's strategy to consolidate the votes that drifted away following an overwhelming dominance of  Yadavs over a period of time. The sub-castes proposed to be included in the SC category essentially constitute the most backward castes (MBCs) within the OBCs.

The state, which is totally in poll-gear has various distinct regions and each belt has different combination of castes. Like in Rohilkand, there are 52 assembly seats and Dalits make up 14-23 per cent and Muslims 39 to 42 per cent  and 30 per cent are backward classes. Brahmins are present in a few areas. It has districts including Bijnor, Moradabad, Badaun and Bareilly.

There are 19 seats in the Bundelkhand region, and it has Dalit population of about 27 and  32 per cent in different segments. Brahmins make up 8-14 per cent and about  8 per cent are Muslims.Among OBCs,  Kurmis,Nishad and Yadav are in good numbers in some  constituencies.Jalaun, Jhansi, Mahoba, Banda andChitrakoot are prominent places of the region.
In central UP, there are 98 seats and the region has 19-25 per cent Dalit population  and Brahmins  figure around 8 to 12 per cent and Muslims 9-28 per cent.
There are 150 assembly seats in eastern UP and Dalits are around 19 per cent, Brahmins 6-14 per cent  and Muslims 8-27 per cent .Kurmis, Rajbhars, Bhumihars and Yadvas are also present in big numbers.

In the cacophony of poll bugles, nothing can be predicted with certainty but a bonfire of many players aspirations and winners will mark Holi with riot of colours  and dash of crackers on March 11—Saturday.

(NOTE : Caste percentages and other figures are taken from various sources like census report/political watchdogs/surveys)