Troika of Events – Lalu’s Patna Rally, AAP’s Bawana win & Cong. Ahmad Patel re-entry to RS – sounds like Bellwether Development; BJP to take note

A massive political rally –“BJP Bhagao- Desh Bachao”in Patna on Sunday may be dismissed by skeptics as a routine jamboree of political outfits longing to usurp power at the center in 2019 General elections, But the turn out speaks volumes of RJD Chief Lalu Prasad Yadav’s proficiency in holding such shows despite an avalanche of odds against him and his family, and in many ways the rally can turn out to be a bellwether development in political corridors.

The Rally appears to have missed major public attention and screaming coverage on TV screens amid hullabaloo of Rapist Baba Ram Rahim’s exploits expose,but it has carried its own political significance coupled with low lying Arvind Kejriwala’s  Aam Aadmi Party ’s victory in Bwana by polls for a Delhi Assembly seat though the party had faced a lot of criticism on a slew of allegations in the recent past. 

Votes were cast in EVMs equipped with VVPAT (Voter verifiable Paper Audit Trail).

The Victory margin for AAP’s winner was an impressive 24,000 voters which pegged at 45.38   per cent of total votes polled. It was the biggest ever jolt to BJP since 1998 as the party polled 27.15 per cent votes only against its traditional votes of over 30 per cent for years together.

In 2015, The BJP had polled 31.30 per cent .it has indicated a slight shift of BJP’s traditional votes. This is not a healthy trend for the BJP, which may rate it as an isolated case in public but must be taking a serious note of the outcome.

The Third development which had its own implications is victory of Congress Leader Ahmad Patel in Rajya- Sabha Elections from Gujarat, the home state of BJP President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The election was a closely contested tussle and all eyes were riveted towards that but the election commission’s intervention and judgement on invalidation of crucial votes scripted a sensational story. Assembly elections are round the corner there.

In Patna rally, signs of opposition parties coming together were loud and clear. Same time, it also brought to fore contradictions within the opposition ranks with big wigs like Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, BSP’s Mayawati, CPM’s Sitaram Yechury were conspicuous by their absence.

Sources say Ms. Mayawati stayed back as she had covertly indicated that role and share of each party should be decided before coming on a common platform .BSP, sources say, wants Congress to play major role in drawing contours of opposition unity with specific benchmarks.

UP which has 80 LS seats s crucial for ruling BJP and other parties .Samajwadi party leader and former Chief Minister Akhiklesh Yadav   attended the Patna rally which was given a slip by Mayawati. Now it is to be seen whether there will be an alliance of Congress –SP-BSP in UP. Nothing can be predicted right now as SP’s patriarch Mulayam singh Yadav and Akhikesh Yadav app don’t not appear on the same page for a grand alliance.

Congress strategists appear to have locked themselves to wait and watch position before embarking on a major initiative of Maha –Gathbandhan on the national level.

Sources say Congress also does not to be seen in company of any tainted political outfits or leaders to portray it as clean outfit as it had lost major ground due to charges of scams in last elections when the Grand Old party (GOP) was reduced to a lump.

It may be noticed that since 1980, Regional parties have played pivotal role in mounting strong opposition to main parties – Congress and BJP-to bring out national alternative. But every time, they had some pivot like Janata Dal during formational of National Front which had TDP of undivided Andhra Pradesh. Even during formation of UF  ( United Front government),Janata dal was at the center and regional parties veered around that with Congress as it main prop for formation of the government at the center to checkmate Atal Bihari Vajpayee led BJP. To power.

This time, such a central force is missing with drubbing Congress in 2014 elections and it was shrunk to 45  seats in the house. Many in poliutical circles remark : Opposition is arranging Barat ( Marriage Party) without bridegroom . The Rally was attended by leaders like  WB CM Ms. Mamta Banerjee, Former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, JD (U) leader Dharad Yadav, CPI's D Raja,Congress party's Ghulam Nabi Azad etc.

Narrative of political spectrum has undergone a sea change and time is running out for opposition parties to pose unitedly a major challenge to BJP which appears more meticulous in political strategies.