Neeraj Bajpai
For 2019 General elections, leaders of political parties have started huddling in war rooms, and are deeply engaged in back channels dialogues to stitch alliances for a sure shot clincher at the hustings.
Strange bedfellows’ syndrome is an order of the day. Stakeholders are making desperate bids to showcase the credible and winning grouping ahead of polls, due within the next three or four months, to elect 17th Lok Sabha. With the first phase of the winter session coming to end this week, parleys among parties have gained momentum, the formal seal on these tie-ups might be stamped only after the declaration of elections because that paves the way of imposition of a code of conduct.
Elections have emerged as a ‘’‘Do or Die’’preposition as stakes are very high. Fast degenerating political narratives is the manifestation of nervousness among players, who apprehend full throttle acrimonious campaign within a few days.It will be a dance of democracy on irritable tunes.
Everyone is daring each other of serious consequences if they are voted to power.This time, nothing can be predicted with certainty as unlike 2014, there is no wave. Last time, the common perception was against Congress-led United Progressive Alliance for a slew of alleged scams. Narendra Modi had landed at an opportune time on the center stage. He encashed that public anger. It was Veni, Vidi, Vici (I came. I saw. I conquered).
This time, the situation is different in more ways than one. Major regional parties, cut up with the working style of the Modi led government, are joining hands. They are trying that it should not be a presidential form of elections like Modi versus Rahul Gandhi.
Till date developments indicate that it would be regional satraps verses the BJP’s leader. Unlike, the untested potential of the team Modi in 2014, this time, The NDA’s performance is also under trial.
The elections are primarily fought on general perceptions, issues, and tempting manifestos. Those aware of the 1977 Janata party wave, pithily recall that after a few months of elections, a group of people from Rae Bareli constituency came to then health minister Raj Narain and complained that locals were annoyed that nothing was being done in the once Indira Gandhi ’s high profile constituency.
The socialist leader snubbed them in his characteristic style quipping if elections are won on development, she would have not lost, and polls are always fought on issues. Akhilesh Yadav, Samajwadi Party (SP) leader was so confident of his work as CM in populous UP that his war cry was –“Vikas Bolta Hai” (development work speaks) turned out to be damp squib and BJP swept assembly polls in 2017. It does not mean that the development goes unnoticed but in building perceptions, it also plays a role – but may not be a significant one in case of an avalanche of emotive issues coupled with a wave for change.
This time issues are different and narratives veer around farming sector distress, farmers’ loan waivers, demonetization, flip-flops on GST rates, lynching, Raffle gun deal, unemployment, Ram temple, Cow slaughter, cow vigilantes’ activities, the amendment in SC/ST act etc.
At the top of these, voters are watchful of the cheap and poor standard of live debates and public speeches and distasteful and unpalatable utterances on issues. Majority of people are averse to poor rhetoric. Voting blocks are getting consolidated on various lines- community, castes, and liberal and conservative outlooks on various issues.
Addition of 133 million new voters will also matter as this bloc’s thought process is altogether different, and their preference might tilt scales.
BJP, though lost power in three crucial Hindi heartland states –Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, is bracing up with renewed vigor to take on the united opposition and has full confidence in Modi’s oratory and their performance to turntables.
It is targeting regions from where loses, if any in its bastions like UP etc., can be compensated
The task is not that facile, given swirling political storms on the ground. If we focus on UP, which gave bucketful of MPs to BJP, is witnessing an altogether different spectrum. Friends turned foes are taking a U-turn to become foes turned friends afresh with screaming headlines that SP and Mayawati’s BSP are joining hands with Ajit Singh’s RLD in the loop.
Initial talks are already underway and both Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati have met in Delhi recently. Though no official word is available, the buzz is that both parties will contest 37 seats each and, two seats each will be given to Congress and RLD. Two seats- Amethi and Rae Bareli -have been left for Congress.
Both SP and BSP have lent support to Kamal Nath’s government in MP. A faction of Apana Dal is also likely to be adjusted in the deal that can be announced on Mayawati’s birthday on January 15.
Strategists are weighing loses and gains if all parties- SP, BSP, Congress, RLD and Apana Dal faction join hands and fight unitedly there, but strategically, it does not augur well for the opposition.
On an earlier occasion, Congress and BSP had fought together UP Vihaan Sabha polls, and results were not encouraging. Likewise, SP- Cong. tie up for 2017 assembly polls was also a fiasco.
But during the Ram Temple wave in 1993, SP-BSP had emerged victorious much to the chagrin of many.it proves that SP and BSP can transfer their votes to each other, but that is not the case with Congress.
The logical inference is Congress gets its committed votes, but it fails to transfer its votes to ally in the sharing seat’s segment. That upper castes votes then go in bulk to BJP.
Muslims, on an average, go the kitty of those who appear giving a tough fight to BJP. Many, within the Congress, argue that if the party fields candidates in all 80 seats, its vote will come back to a resurgent Congress, but it can be a great gamble.
BJP may be elated with such a division in the opposition ranks, but, in real terms, it can be worst of time or best of times for them. Only time will tell.
After three states’ victory, Congressmen also feel rejuvenated and Rahul Gandhi’s pugnacious skills have infused confidence in them, so its candidates, many of them known for their track records in public life, can win as the party is again in currency.
Dissection of all pros and cons are being done meticulously and friendly fights among these main opposition parties in the state cannot be ruled out.
Proponents argue that while minorities and backward have faith in SP, Dalits and minorities have faith in BSP. Likewise, Jats have turned riveted their eyes to RLD and they flaunt victory of Noor Bano in Kairana and Nurpur by-elections as a major indicator towards changing ground realities. Young Jayant Chaudhary, son of Ajit Singh, has good chemistry with SP leader Akhilesh Yadav. The opposition parties are drawing great satisfaction from victories in Phulpur, Gorakhpur and Kairana LS by-polls last year.
In 2014, SP and BSP jointly got 41 .80 percent votes. BSP with 19.60 percent votes could not bag a single seat while SP with 22.20 percent votes could collect only five seats. BJP with 42.30 percent votes emerged victorious in 73 seats, out of which two were of its ally. BSP, SP, and Congress vote share jointly surpass BJP’S votes to touch invincible 49.30 percent.
Same way, in 2017 assembly polls SP had got 21.8 percent votes while the BSP vote share stood 22.2 percent votes, jointly they had polled 44 percent votes while BJP, with 39.7 percent votes share formed the government with 312 MLAs.
SP had only 47 and BSP got only 19 MLAs though the BJP had got 2.10 votes less than what it polled in Lok Sabha elections.
Congress had tragically got 6.2 percent votes only though it had fought with SP and latter could not field candidates in 105 seats because of that tie up. All these calculations are still on the table.
In Delhi, the possibility of Congress and AAP tie-up cannot be ruled out and observers gather indication from the sudden departure of Ajay Makan from Congress Delhi unit Chief’s slot and HS Phoolka exit from Aam Admi Party (AAP). Both were seen as a staunch opponent to such a tie-up.
Insiders say if the two parties join hands for Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana, the combine may wrest 25 out of 30 seats. Currently, BJP with its ally Akali Dal has 20 seats in these states.
In Punjab alone, Congress and AAP had jointly polled 63.50 percent votes, The Cong had three seats and AAP had four seats while Akali Dal and BJP had four and two seats respectively. Chandigarh –UT- SEATS was also with the BJP.
In Delhi, BJP had bagged all seven seats with 46.50 percent votes while both Cong and AAP had drawn blank despite combined vote share of 54.50 percent. Arvind Kejriwal’s outfit had cornered 39.40 percent votes.
Congress is desperate to throw out the Modi government, but in the process, it may yielding its ground to all other players who can, later on, nibble away its traditional votes. In 1991, BSP’S founder Kanshi Ram had won LS seat with Mulayam Singh Yadav‘s support and it had resulted in a tie-up between two parties in 1993, they formed the government
With SP emerging victorious in 109 seats and BSP 67 and BJP had 177 seats but SP- BSP formed the government with supporting some small parties. These were the days of the Temple wave. Since then, the BSP did not look back. Congress leaders are apprehensive of such a scenario. a few floated the idea of Congress going with Pragtsheel Samajwadi morcha of Shivpal Yadav, but there are a few takers as it might offend Akhilesh’s SP.
A close look on pan India scenario shows that In Tamil Nadu, the picture is clear that DMK and Congress will join hands, and the only thing that is being keenly watched is that which way cine Stars Rajnikant and Kamal Hasan will go. Last time, with Jayalalithaa at the helm of affairs, AIADMK had got 37 seats and one seat each had gone to PMK and BJP.
Congress and Telugu Desam Party had joined hands in the recently concluded Telangana state where TRS formed the government and now trying to cobble non-BJP and non-congress federal front.
The picture is still hazy on that ground for LS. Out of 25 seats in AP,the role Jagan Mohan Reddy is keenly watched as last time with 28.90 percent of votes he had bagged eight seats for his YSR Congress, and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP had won 15 seats with 29.10 percent votes but Congress with 11.5 percent votes had drawn a blank while the BJP had Two seats with 8.50 percent vote share.
With TDP’S alignment with Cong in Telangana, prospects of Cong. and YSR coming together appear bleak. The state is set to go for the assembly polls along with LS elections.
In a related development, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) chief K Chandra Shekhar Rao is gearing up for 17 LS seats in the state where it had got eleven seats last time, leaving crumps of two seats for Congress. This time, both KCR and YRCP have come very close and they jointly eye 30-35 LS seats together for playing a key role in a fractured mandate poll scenario.
In Maharashtra, Congress and NCP have already initiated talks as the state assembly polls are also round the corner there. On day to day basis, growing disenchantment between Shiv Sena and BJP is intriguing, and of late Shiv Sena leadership has retched up attack on the BJP, its ally.
It is a matter of discussion that whether they will contest separately or it is a ploy only by Shiv Sena to have a better bargaining chip with BJP which had 23 seats out of 48 seats and SS had 18 seats.
Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP had fought separately in 2014 and could win four and two respectively with 34.10 percent of votes. BJP and SS had 27.30 and 20.60 percent of votes respectively. If they contest separately, the fate is any body’s guess.
Many envision that they cannot afford to contest alone as a vote bank is largely common and it is only a ploy for hard bargains.
Tough pre-polls, bargain was witnessed in Bihar where LJP Leaders mounted attack on BJP and virtually raised banner of revolt but before things could go out of hands, seat-sharing deal was struck among JD( U) BJP and LJP with latter getting assurance of one Rajya Sabha seat For Ram Vilas Paswan and six seats for the LS Polls. Both BJP and JD (U) will contest 17 seats each.
On the other hand, RJD, Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, and four others have joined hands to take on the ruling party’s combine.
BJP had bagged 22 seats with 29.40 votes share.JD (U) had only two seats. RJD, with 20.10 percent votes had cornered four seats and Congress had only one with 8.4 percent votes. NCP, too, had one.
The situation in vicinal Jharkhand is not yet clear for 14 seats and had BJP had 12 seats and JMM could win two seats. Alliances are not yet framed there.
In states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, Congress is appparently in a better position to wage a stiff challenge in wake of its show in the assembly polls there.
BJP had an impressive and saturated score in these states with a tally of 27/29; 10/11; 25/25; 26/26 respectively, but now assembly polls in these states had scripted a tough chapter for the BJP.
In Karnataka, Congress and JD (S) government are already in place and the interesting battle is on cards for 28 LS Seats. The Congress and JD(S) had bagged 9 and 2 seats each against tally of 17 seats of BJP.
Last time, Congress and JD (S) had contested separately. BJP had 43.30 vote share against Congress share of 40.80 and JD-S- 11 percent votes share.
In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress ‘s Mamata Banerjee appears standing ahead of others on 42 seats with the last tally of 34 seats, Congress 4, BJP 2 and CPM 2. This time, BJP may pose a tough challenge to her fiefdom as crowds are turning up in BJP meetings.
In Odisha, where assembly polls are also scheduled, Naveen Patnaik of Biju Janata Dal has kept his cards close to his chest though he had a meeting with Telangana CM KCR recently when he was lobbying for a non-congress and nob BJP federal front.
The question is whether, this time BJD could keep its grip on the state’s 21 seats .it had won 20 seats and BJP had only one and Congress despite having 26 percent votes had nil last time. Assembly polls are also due there and anti-incumbency is staring the BJD government and it is to be who can exploit that to its advantage.
The BJP had done well in Assam and had also formed the state government there, uprooting Congress.it has a lot of hopes in the North East to make up losses elsewhere.
BJP had won 7 seats out of 14 therein which Both Congress and UDF had got three each.PM has already addressed a fiery meeting in Silchar but the cutoff date of migrants is turning out to be a big issue.
In Kerala, Sabarimala issue has stoked tension. The peace-loving state is on the boil and recent wall of women across the state are pre-polls narratives and nothing can be predicted right now for 20 seats there. Congress and CPM ad won 8 and 5 seats respectively in 2014. In the surcharged environs, voters’ mood can swing any way.
Electoral deals have been worked out for almost 85 percent of seats across the country and only formal announcements are left.
A few states like AP, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Jammu, and Kashmir may also go for simultaneous polls with general elections. The polls are due there in April- May. Elections will be due in Maharashtra Haryana and Jharkhand, too, from October to December, this year. General elections are due to be held sometime around in April and May 2019 to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha. The tenure of the current NDA government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi ends on 26th May. The Last Parliamentary Polls were held in 2014 which were held in 9 phases starting from 7 April 2017 to 12th May 2014 and in which BJP alone crossed the halfway mark on its own. This time, it appears that the tough contest is on cards.
And now calculations are whether the BJP with 31 percent votes 282 seats will be marginalized, and Congress with 19.3 1 percent votes and meager 44 seats in last elections will be able to make the tussle a nail-biting finish with strategic alliances.
Role of other parties which had formed a chunk of 147 seats in the LS apart from NDA cannot be sidestepped during days of fresh realignments. Nothing can be forecast now as alliances are in the formative stage and fresh developments like one in Assam, Reservation for upper castes, CBI heat in UP swing mood of electorate either way .
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